First and foremost, the Nov 2 election is the Senate primary.  While Rep David Vitter is polling in the low 40s, it is virtually impossible for him to get 50%+1 on Nov 2.  So there WILL be a runoff.  Now, I don't want to get pissy, but you have left out one of the 3 Dems in the race, and he's the one who may surprise everyone.  I'm talking about Arthur Morrell (http://morrellforlouisiana.com), who has been a state legislator for 21 years.  Morrell is African-American and has largely been ignored by the Democratic powers-that-be (they want Chris John, whose voting record is nearly identical to Vitter's, and who was closely associated with turncoat Rodney Alexander).  But internal polls show nothing like what Chris John claims.  In fact, Vitter is around 42%, Kennedy about 18%, John about 16%, and Morrell at 12%, up from 11% (Chris John calls him at 3%), with 12% undecided (and they are only undecided about which Dem to support).  It is clear that the establishment Dems consider Morrell a threat to make the runoff, and I certainly hope he does since he's the only real Democrat running.

Read more about this race and the Dem trend in Louisiana below, then take the poll.